October hopefuls, Mets held in check by playoff-level pitching (2024)

SEATTLE -- The challenge facing the Mets at T-Mobile Park this weekend was apparent long before they touched down in the Pacific Northwest. Lying in wait were the Mariners, who boasted, statistically, Major League Baseball’s best rotation. No matter which pitchers Seattle put on the mound, the Mets were going to have their hands full.

After New York hitters went scoreless over their first two games against that rotation, including a 4-0 loss to Logan Gilbert and the Mariners on Saturday night, a more dire question has surfaced: Can they hit elite pitching?

Consider: Thirteen times this season, the Mets have faced a starter with one of the 20 highest WAR totals in the league, as calculated by FanGraphs. Those pitchers have produced a 2.01 ERA against the Mets, with nearly four times as many strikeouts as walks. The Mets failed to muster an earned run against six of those 13 starters, including Gilbert, Tyler Glasnow and Logan Webb (twice). They plated two or fewer earned runs 11 times. Only once, versus Padres ace Dylan Cease back in June, did they score more than three.

Aces, of course, are aces for a reason. They thrive more often than not, no matter the opponent. But considering no qualified Major League pitcher holds better than a 2.57 ERA this season, and considering the Mets boast a top-10 offense in baseball, it’s fair to say they’ve struggled more than expected against the game’s very best.

“We have faced some good pitchers,” shortstop Francisco Lindor said Friday. “Here [in Seattle], there’s a lot of young, really good starting pitchers. … At the end of the day, we’re big leaguers. We’ve got to go out there and make adjustments.”

The key to beating aces, Jeff McNeil added, is making them uncomfortable -- something the Mets never achieved Saturday against Gilbert. After Lindor led off the game with a single, Gilbert didn’t allow a hit to the next 17 batters. Nor did he permit a runner past first base all night.

The Mariners, meanwhile, scored three times in the first inning off an uncharacteristically wild version of Sean Manaea, which proved to be plenty as the Mets extended their scoreless streak to 19 innings.

“It’s the big leagues, man,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said. “And we’ve got good hitters. It’s just the past two nights, [Seattle pitchers] have been on their games. We haven’t shown much.”

In Brandon Nimmo’s estimation, the Mets’ best chance may have been the 2-1 fastball Gilbert threw him over the heart of the plate with a man on base in the sixth -- a mistake pitch from the jump. But Nimmo popped it up to center field to end the inning, finishing 0-for-3 as one of six hitless Mets.

“Usually, these kinds of games, they’re one or two runs,” Nimmo said. “You’re talking playoff kind of baseball. And usually it comes down to a few pitches a game.”

Drawing on the example of his sixth-inning at-bat, Nimmo continued: “Say if I hit the home run on the mistake that he made, it’s a two-run home run and we’re in a totally different ballgame right there. But instead, I pop it up, he’s out of the inning and he’s through seven scoreless.”

Ask any Met, and they’ll say the playoffs are where they want to be. But beating up on mediocre pitchers only to fall flat against good ones is hardly an ideal recipe to reach October, let alone to thrive in baseball’s annual postseason tournament. The loss on Saturday pushed the Mets a half-game out of a National League Wild Card spot.

“It’s not easy,” McNeil said. “Every pitcher we face is a big leaguer. I mean, everyone’s good. But [the Mariners] have a good staff. It’s a grind.”

Things won’t grow much easier on Sunday Night Baseball for the Mets, who are scheduled to face perennial frontline starter Luis Castillo -- a pitcher, like Friday starter Bryce Miller, who ranks just outside MLB’s top 20 in WAR. Only when the Mets return home to Citi Field will they find a reprieve against the A’s and Marlins, neither of whom employ a top-50 starter this year.

Then again, Mets hitters understand it doesn’t really matter what caliber of pitcher they face.

“We’ve just got to find ways to score runs,” Lindor said. “It’s hard to win games if you don’t score runs.”